Given taxi-ride counts information between departure and destination locations, how can we forecast their future demands? In general, given a data stream of events with seasonal patterns that innovate over time, how can we effectively and efficiently forecast future events? In this paper, we propose Shifting Seasonal Matrix Factorization approach, namely SSMF, that can adaptively learn multiple seasonal patterns (called regimes), as well as switching between them. Our proposed method has the following properties: (a) it accurately forecasts future events by detecting regime shifts in seasonal patterns as the data stream evolves; (b) it works in an online setting, i.e., processes each observation in constant time and memory; (c) it effectively realizes regime shifts without human intervention by using a lossless data compression scheme. We demonstrate that our algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art baseline methods by accurately forecasting upcoming events on three real-world data streams.

Many events occur in the world. Some event types are stochastically excited or inhibited--in the sense of having their probabilities elevated or decreased--by patterns in the sequence of previous events. Discovering such patterns can help us predict which type of event will happen next and when. We model streams of discrete events in continuous time, by constructing a neurally self-modulating multivariate point process in which the intensities of multiple event types evolve according to a novel continuous-time LSTM . This generative model allows past events to influence the future in complex and realistic ways, by conditioning future event intensities on the hidden state of a recurrent neural network that has consumed the stream of past events. Our model has desirable qualitative properties. It achieves competitive likelihood and predictive accuracy on real and synthetic datasets, including under missing-data conditions.

Script event induction, which aims to predict the subsequent event based on the context, is a challenging task in NLP, achieving remarkable success in practical applications. However, human events are mostly recorded and presented in the form of videos rather than scripts, yet there is a lack of related research in the realm of vision. To address this problem, we introduce AVEP (Action-centric Video Event Prediction), a task that distinguishes itself from existing video prediction tasks through its incorporation of more complex logic and richer semantic information. We present a large structured dataset, which consists of about $35K$ annotated videos and more than $178K$ video clips of event, built upon existing video event datasets to support this task. The dataset offers more fine-grained annotations, where the atomic unit is represented as a multimodal event argument node, providing better structured representations of video events. Due to the complexity of event structures, traditional visual models that take patches or frames as input are not well-suited for AVEP. We propose EventFormer, a node-graph hierarchical attention based video event prediction model, which can capture both the relationships between events and their arguments and the coreferencial relationships between arguments. We conducted experiments using several SOTA video prediction models as well as LVLMs on AVEP, demonstrating both the complexity of the task and the value of the dataset. Our approach outperforms all these video prediction models. We will release the dataset and code for replicating the experiments and annotations.

Future prediction is a complex task for LLM agents, requiring a high level of analytical thinking, information gathering, contextual understanding, and decision-making under uncertainty. Agents must not only gather and interpret vast amounts of dynamic information but also integrate diverse data sources, weigh uncertainties, and adapt predictions based on emerging trends, just as human experts do in fields like politics, economics, and finance. Despite its importance, no large-scale benchmark exists for evaluating agents on future prediction, largely due to challenges in handling real-time updates and retrieving timely, accurate answers. To address this, we introduce $\textbf{FutureX}$, a dynamic and live evaluation benchmark specifically designed for LLM agents performing future prediction tasks. FutureX is the largest and most diverse live benchmark for future prediction, supporting real-time daily updates and eliminating data contamination through an automated pipeline for question gathering and answer collection. We evaluate 25 LLM/agent models, including those with reasoning, search capabilities, and integration of external tools such as the open-source Deep Research Agent and closed-source Deep Research models. This comprehensive evaluation assesses agents' adaptive reasoning and performance in dynamic environments. Additionally, we provide in-depth analyses of agents' failure modes and performance pitfalls in future-oriented tasks, including the vulnerability to fake web pages and the temporal validity. Our goal is to establish a dynamic, contamination-free evaluation standard that drives the development of LLM agents capable of performing at the level of professional human analysts in complex reasoning and predictive thinking.

Next-token prediction serves as the foundational learning task enabling reasoning in LLMs. But what should the learning task be when aiming to equip MLLMs with temporal reasoning capabilities over video inputs? Existing tasks such as video question answering often rely on annotations from humans or much stronger MLLMs, while video captioning tends to entangle temporal reasoning with spatial information. To address this gap, we propose next-event prediction (NEP), a learning task that harnesses future video segments as a rich, self-supervised signal to foster temporal reasoning. We segment each video into past and future frames: the MLLM takes the past frames as input and predicts a summary of events derived from the future frames, thereby encouraging the model to reason temporally in order to complete the task. To support this task, we curate V1-33K, a dataset comprising 33,000 automatically extracted video segments spanning diverse real-world scenarios. We further explore a range of video instruction-tuning strategies to study their effects on temporal reasoning. To evaluate progress, we introduce FutureBench to assess coherence in predicting unseen future events. Experiments validate that NEP offers a scalable and effective training paradigm for fostering temporal reasoning in MLLMs.

Episodic Future Thinking (EFT) is an intervention that involves vividly imagining personal future events and experiences in detail. It has shown promise as an intervention to reduce delay discounting - the tendency to devalue delayed rewards in favor of immediate gratification - and to promote behavior change in a range of maladaptive health behaviors. We present EFTeacher, an AI chatbot powered by the GPT-4-Turbo large language model, designed to generate EFT cues for users with lifestyle-related conditions. To evaluate the chatbot, we conducted a user study that included usability assessments and user evaluations based on content characteristics questionnaires, followed by semi-structured interviews. The study provides qualitative insights into participants' experiences and interactions with the chatbot and its usability. Our findings highlight the potential application of AI chatbots based on Large Language Models (LLMs) in EFT interventions, and offer design guidelines for future behavior-oriented applications.

Future Event Prediction (FEP) is an essential activity whose demand and application range across multiple domains. While traditional methods like simulations, predictive and time-series forecasting have demonstrated promising outcomes, their application in forecasting complex events is not entirely reliable due to the inability of numerical data to accurately capture the semantic information related to events. One forecasting way is to gather and aggregate collective opinions on the future to make predictions as cumulative perspectives carry the potential to help estimating the likelihood of upcoming events. In this work, we organize the existing research and frameworks that aim to support future event prediction based on crowd wisdom through aggregating individual forecasts. We discuss the challenges involved, available datasets, as well as the scope of improvement and future research directions for this task. We also introduce a novel data model to represent individual forecast statements.

We investigate the explainability of Reinforcement Learning (RL) policies from a temporal perspective, focusing on the sequence of future outcomes associated with individual actions. In RL, value functions compress information about rewards collected across multiple trajectories and over an infinite horizon, allowing a compact form of knowledge representation. However, this compression obscures the temporal details inherent in sequential decision-making, presenting a key challenge for interpretability. We present Temporal Policy Decomposition (TPD), a novel explainability approach that explains individual RL actions in terms of their Expected Future Outcome (EFO). These explanations decompose generalized value functions into a sequence of EFOs, one for each time step up to a prediction horizon of interest, revealing insights into when specific outcomes are expected to occur. We leverage fixed-horizon temporal difference learning to devise an off-policy method for learning EFOs for both optimal and suboptimal actions, enabling contrastive explanations consisting of EFOs for different state-action pairs. Our experiments demonstrate that TPD generates accurate explanations that (i) clarify the policy's future strategy and anticipated trajectory for a given action and (ii) improve understanding of the reward composition, facilitating fine-tuning of the reward function to align with human expectations.

Given taxi-ride counts information between departure and destination locations, how can we forecast their future demands? In general, given a data stream of events with seasonal patterns that innovate over time, how can we effectively and efficiently forecast future events? In this paper, we propose Shifting Seasonal Matrix Factorization approach, namely SSMF, that can adaptively learn multiple seasonal patterns (called regimes), as well as switching between them. Our proposed method has the following properties: (a) it accurately forecasts future events by detecting regime shifts in seasonal patterns as the data stream evolves; (b) it works in an online setting, i.e., processes each observation in constant time and memory; (c) it effectively realizes regime shifts without human intervention by using a lossless data compression scheme. We demonstrate that our algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art baseline methods by accurately forecasting upcoming events on three real-world data streams.